- India continues to dominate the global rice market, contributing nearly 40% of global trade. In FY24, rice exports reached 22.4 million tonnes, earning over US $12.4 billion, up nearly 20% year-on-year. ([USDA / DGCIS Data])
- Despite this dominance, 2025 has become a balancing year — the government is walking a tightrope between maintaining its global export share and ensuring domestic price and supply stability.
🔹 Production & Procurement Trends
- India’s 2024–25 paddy output is estimated at a record 138–139 million tonnes, driven by improved rainfall and expanded cultivation across Punjab, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh.
- The Food Corporation of India (FCI) procured about 48.5 million tonnes of rice this year, up from 46.3 million tonnes last year, strengthening buffer stocks.
- Buffer stock levels stand around 40 million tonnes, well above the required 27 million tonnes under the Food Security Act.
- The government has also diverted roughly 5.2 million tonnes of surplus rice toward ethanol production, aligning with the 20% blending target under the National Biofuel Policy.
Table 1: India’s Rice Balance Sheet (FY25 Estimate)
| Metric | FY24 (Actual) | FY25 (Estimate) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production (Mn Tonnes) | 135.5 | 138.7 | +2.4% |
| Procurement (Mn Tonnes) | 46.3 | 48.5 | +4.8% |
| Domestic Consumption (Mn Tonnes) | 108 | 110 | +1.9% |
| Export Volume (Mn Tonnes) | 22.4 | 21.0–22.0 | −4% |
| Average Export Price (US$/t) | 520 | 560 | +7.7% |
🔹 Basmati vs. Non-Basmati Exports
- Basmati rice continues to be the premium driver, with exports at 6.06 million tonnes in FY25, valued at ₹50,312 crore (≈ US $6 billion) — a 15.7% rise in volume and 4% gain in value.
- The minimum export price (MEP) remains fixed near US $950 per tonne, protecting exporters’ margins and brand value.
- Key destinations: Saudi Arabia (1.17 Mt), Iran (0.98 Mt), Iraq, and UAE — together consuming nearly 60% of Indian basmati exports.
- Non-basmati rice, however, faces policy turbulence. Export restrictions, MEP floors, and duties led to an 87% drop in white rice shipments during the 2023 ban period, though recovery began in late-2024.
- Africa remains the largest market for non-basmati rice — Nigeria, Senegal, and Benin alone account for over 40% of India’s total parboiled and broken rice exports.
Table 2: India’s Rice Exports by Type (FY25)
| Segment | Volume (Mn Tonnes) | Value (US $ Bn) | YoY Change | Top Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basmati | 6.06 | 6.0 | +15.7% | Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, UAE |
| Non-Basmati (All types) | 15.8 | 6.4 | −4.0% | Nigeria, Benin, Bangladesh, Senegal |
| Total Exports | 21.8 | 12.4 | +19.7% | — |
🔹 Global Trade Context
- Global rice trade (2025) is projected at ~59.7 million tonnes, up just 2% YoY. India remains the largest supplier, followed by Vietnam (7.9 Mt) and Thailand (7.5 Mt).
- Thailand’s exports are forecast to decline due to rising domestic costs and competition from India, while Vietnam is expanding its share in high-value markets like Japan and the EU.
- Global rice prices remain under pressure. The FAO All Rice Price Index has fallen 13% in 2025, with Thai 5% broken rice down 26% from late-2024, now averaging US $372.5 / tonne, the lowest since 2017.
- Despite falling global prices, Indian rice remains competitive, trading US $60–90/t cheaper than Thai and Vietnamese grades, sustaining demand across Africa and Southeast Asia.
Indian vs. Thai Export Price Trend (US$/Tonne)
| Month (2025) | India Parboiled | Thailand 5% Broken | Price Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 520 | 610 | 90 |
| Mar | 545 | 590 | 45 |
| Jun | 560 | 620 | 60 |
| Sep | 570 | 640 | 70 |
🔹 Domestic Challenges & Regional Gaps
- While India’s overall production looks strong, regional imbalances persist.
- Punjab, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana report record procurement and stocks.
- Bihar, Odisha, and West Bengal, however, continue to struggle with fragmented procurement and price realization, often depending on private traders.
- Freight costs remain 15–18% higher than pre-pandemic averages, squeezing exporter margins.
- Exporters increasingly use smaller ports like Kakinada and Krishnapatnam to improve turnaround time and reduce demurrage costs.
🔹 Policy and Strategic Implications
- Export curbs will likely continue intermittently to ensure price stability and food security.
- The government’s dual focus — maintaining foreign exchange earnings (~ US $12–13 Bn) and domestic supply confidence — will remain through FY26.
- Programs under Agristack and e-NAM digital traceability are expected to help brand Indian rice as a trusted and traceable export product.
- Expansion of fortified and parboiled rice exports, especially to Africa and South Asia, will define the next growth phase.
- Climate resilience remains key — El Niño and regional rainfall variability could reduce yields by 3–5%, trimming exportable surplus by 1.5–2 million tonnes.
🔹 Outlook 2025–26
- Projected exports: 23–24 million tonnes (40% global share)
- Average export realization: US $550–600 per tonne
- Top growth markets: Middle East, Malaysia, East Africa
- Policy risk: High — periodic curbs likely during inflation spikes
- Strategic shift: From volume to value — emphasizing sustainability, traceability, and fortified rice branding
🔹 Analyst Takeaway
India’s rice export dominance in 2025 is underpinned by scale, pricing, and reliability — yet challenged by policy volatility and logistics costs. The next phase of growth will depend on value-chain efficiency, climate adaptation, and policy predictability. Exporters must adopt multi-market diversification, hedge freight exposure, and align with government quality traceability mandates.
India has transformed rice from a mere foodgrain into a strategic export tool — balancing domestic security and global influence. The challenge now is to sustain this leadership while building resilience and value across the entire agri-supply chain.
Author: Markintel Market Research Team
Published: 8 October 2025
Source references: USDA, FAO, APEDA, Reuters, DGCIS, Market Estimates
Disclaimer: Data and insights presented in this article are compiled from publicly available government and industry sources including NITI Aayog, ICRA, CRU, World Bank, and others. Markintel has independently analyzed and interpreted this information for research and educational purposes; it does not represent the official views of any cited organization.
